Election Dynamics in Nyanza: Can Raila Sway Voters for Ruto in 2027 Amid Historical Apathy?

On June 1, 2025, the latest election data from Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Busia, and Migori counties revealed a persistent trend of voter apathy, with a total of 731,125 registered voters across these regions, yet significant numbers did not participate. In Siaya County, 155,354 of 533,602 registered voters did not vote, despite 376,354 valid votes and 1,894 spoilt votes. Kisumu County saw 173,919 of 607,496 registered voters abstain, with 431,005 valid votes and 2,572 spoilt votes. Homabay County reported 144,954 non-voters out of 551,111 registered, with 404,112 valid votes and 2,045 spoilt votes. Busia County had 137,199 of 416,818 registered voters not voting, with 276,730 valid votes and 2,889 spoilt votes. Lastly, Migori County recorded 119,669 non-voters out of 469,053 registered, with 347,773 valid votes and 1,611 spoilt votes.

This data echoes the 2022 election, where over 700,000 voters in Nyanza, a traditional stronghold of ODM leader Raila Odinga, did not vote, contributing to his loss to President William Ruto by a narrow margin of 200,000 votes. A comment accompanying the recent data noted, “Ndo akashindwa na just 200k votes,” highlighting the critical role voter turnout played in that election.

The question now is whether Raila can convince Nyanza to support Ruto in the 2027 election, especially after his recent political alignment with the President. On May 31, 2025, 20,000 Nyanza residents, including some of the 144,954 Luos from Homabay who did not vote for Raila in 2022, filled the Raila Odinga Stadium overnight for Madaraka Day celebrations on June 1. This turnout, despite the cold, showed enthusiasm for a public event, but political pundits question whether this translates to voting commitment. “They camped overnight for Madaraka Day, but will they camp overnight to vote in 2027 when it matters most at polling stations?” one analyst remarked.

Ruto faces a steep challenge in consolidating Nyanza’s support, a region that has not fully embraced his broad-based government. Critics argue that Ruto could make inroads by focusing on development projects, addressing voter apathy through mass issuance of ID and voter cards, and potentially manipulating electoral processes. Ruto’s recent Nyanza tour, including the Madaraka Day event, emphasized development, such as a Sh3.5 billion housing project in Kisumu and blue economy initiatives in Homabay, aimed at winning over the region. However, historical voting patterns suggest deep loyalty to Raila, with 2022 data showing he retained over 95% of votes in Kisumu, Siaya, and Homabay, despite the 72% turnout—lower than the 80% in 2017.

Compounding Ruto’s challenge is the loss of over 5 million votes in Central Kenya, a key voting bloc, due to political tensions with leaders like Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. Research indicates that Central Kenya, predominantly Kikuyu, has historically been a decisive region, often swayed by ethnic allegiances and clientelist strategies. In 2022, Ruto’s success there was partly due to anti-Luo sentiment against Raila, but current dynamics suggest a fractured support base, making it nearly impossible for Ruto to compensate for this loss solely with Nyanza’s votes, which total around 1.6 million with a potential turnout of 1.2 million when Raila is on the ballot.

Posts on X reflect skepticism about Ruto’s prospects in Nyanza, with some users noting that even with Raila’s support, Ruto may struggle to secure 30% of the region’s votes, given the hostility and Raila’s own 76% share in 2022. Others argue that Raila’s influence could be pivotal, but only if he actively campaigns for Ruto, a scenario complicated by Raila’s potential African Union Commission chairmanship bid in 2025, which might limit his political engagement in Kenya.

The low voter turnout in Nyanza, coupled with Ruto’s challenges in Central Kenya, underscores the need for a robust strategy to boost participation and loyalty. While development initiatives may appeal to some, the region’s principled stance and historical voting behavior suggest that Raila’s endorsement alone may not suffice to deliver Nyanza to Ruto in 2027. Election officials and community leaders are now urged to focus on voter education and registration drives to address apathy, as the region braces for another pivotal electoral contest.