Raila Odinga’s chances of becoming the next African Union Commission Chair are now uncertain, as a proposal by the Permanent Representatives’ Committee could block his bid due to Kenya and Rwanda’s previous positions.

The proposed changes aim to restrict countries that have held specific AU positions since 2002 from contesting the upcoming election, potentially ending Odinga’s hopes for the top job.

With the rotational nature of the position dictating that the next Chair should come from East Africa, only Tanzania and other countries in the region may nominate a candidate, complicating matters for Odinga, who has been endorsed by Kenya.

The decision-making process at the AU requires consensus, meaning that even a single ‘no’ vote could derail the proposal to change the electoral rules for the AUC leadership election in 2025.